Superfusion: How China and America Became One Economy and Why the World's Prosperity Depends on It Review

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Superfusion: How China and America Became One Economy and Why the World's Prosperity Depends on It ReviewI have been interested in China since 1998 when a good friend married a Chinese national and encouraged me to visit and make up my own mind about the Middle Kingdom. I have read 15 books about China and visited three times in the last 14 months. Zachary Karabell is the first author to put together a comprehensive historical and financial framework that explains what has been going on in China for the last twenty years with on-the-ground personal experiences and portfolio management insights from his several years as running a successful China mutual fund. He explains how Kentucky Fried Chicken, Avon and Federal Express achieved success but I was more interested in his not-as-well known company examples which included [...], [...], China Life Insurance, and Huawei Technologies.
Deng Xiaoping's economic reforms in China have been going on for thirty years. Everywhere I went and talked to young Chinese (through an interpreter who spoke Mandarin) they mentioned Deng's remarks "to be rich is to be glorious" and "Black cat, white cat, what does it matter as long as it catches mice?" The well educated twenty to thirty-five year old Chinese men (and women) know that the 21st century is their century. These "Chuppies" - Chinese yuppies - were everywhere in Shanghai and Hong Kong. Their internet phones and laptops were ubiquitous and more advanced than mine. The only thing I did not understand was the fascination with massively multi-player online role-playing games in internet cafes.
My only quibble is that the term "Chimerica" (which was coined by Niall Ferguson) would have worked better in the title instead of "Superfusion".
I highly recommend this book. Also, if you haven't been to Asia, go to Hong Kong and Shanghai. Those skylines with their new 100 story buildings put New York City to shame.
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China's Financial Markets: An Insider's Guide to How the Markets Work Review

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China's Financial Markets: An Insider's Guide to How the Markets Work ReviewWhat is famous professor of Financial Engineering Salih N. Neftci doing writing about China's financial markets? What could this possibly have to do with his excellent work demonstrating equivalent cash flows and creating synthetic instruments?
Well "omnia et nihilos" (everything and nothing). Neftci's welcome clarity is once again evident here (this time with an edditor's hand), and his efficiency in breaking down topics into digestible bites is also very much in evidence. But Neftci must have picked up his interest in China's growing financial markets from the (now a whole generation) of the excellent Chinese students he has trained. Undoubtedly his students are well placed on Wall Street, China, and globally and this book will bridge their financial engineering skills with this essential study of this important emerging market's microstructure.
This is an excellent reference tool for those interested in the development of financial markets in China and would make a wonderful gift from CLSA for those who attend its annual Shanghai-Hong Kong two-week conference on Asian investments. The CLSA conference is justifiably famous for having the best speakers, firms, institutional investors, and discussions.
Hong Kong-based shareholder activist David Webb has long pointed to the dangers of minority shareholding and security holding in the Hong Kong market (and Taiwan). In Neftci's "China's Financial Markets: An Insider's Guide to How the Markets Work" Webb's concerns are amplified for the mainland China markets as well.
The Shanghai and other mainland Chinese markets are rapidly evolving, and such concepts as a limited liability non-natural person owner (a corporation), the ability to short stock (possible for floor traders, not possible for investors), and the repatriazation of profits are among the challenges that need to be faced as Chinese regulators and a global investor class seek to deploy capital efficiently. The contributions of expert Chinese insiders provide descriptions of the banking system, the mortgage, money, equity, futures, FX, and bond markets, and the all-important capital formation arms of the insurance sector. The baffling roles of government, regulators, and the now globally-powerful Chinese central bank are also covered.
Size alone won't cure poor regulatory environment or respect for property rights and repatriazation of profits. Nevertheless China's financial markets currently represent about $3 trillion and are expected to grow to "about $10 trillion by 2008." In ths face of such rapid change (delta = opportunity) it is no wonder that the master of the greeks Salih Neftci wrote this wonderful book. An excellent thoughtful work that provided first-class information and could easily have been double the size.China's Financial Markets: An Insider's Guide to How the Markets Work Overview

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China Fireworks: How to Make Dramatic Wealth from the Fastest-Growing Economy in the World Review

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China Fireworks: How to Make Dramatic Wealth from the Fastest-Growing Economy in the World ReviewHsu's intent is to provide investment advice for those interested in China. This he does well, explaining both his style of investing (momentum-driven), and the types of investments to look for and look out for. In the process, he also tells the story of a very dynamic economy.
First, some of the superlatives. China produces more steel, aluminum, cement, coal, clothing, and toys than any other nation. It has the most cell-phone users (average fees = $6/month). China already has the world's largest dam and airport, high-speed train network, and highest railroad. Now it is finishing a six-lane bridge connecting Shanghai with the island of Yang-shan (20 miles offshore) that will be the largest sea-span bridge and connect with the world's largest port. Shanghai alone has 40% of the world's construction cranes; the nation builds the equivalent of a new Philadelphia every six weeks, and a new nuclear power plant every year. China was also the world's largest manufacturing exporter in 2006, up from half the size of the U.S. in 2000. Renewable power sources are mandated to increase from 7% in 2008 to 15% in 2010.
Hsu sees Confucian values (social harmony via respect for authority, emphasis on education, strong interpersonal relationships, and personal integrity) as supportive of China's economic growth.
The author points out that China's major cities and provinces have different cultures, and sometimes different languages, and suggests those looking for real estate opportunities focus outside of Shanghai and Beijing - less competition, and larger overall population. Avoid investing in State-Owned Enterprises (SOE) - they generally are not well managed, and the government recently mandated they become self-sufficient or dissolve - about 2,000 of the remaining 100,000 went bankrupt in 2008. Hsu also points out that Chinese firm valuations are often severely distorted by the fact that the government may hold (without trading) a majority of shares in them. Hsu also suggests staying away from firms traded only on Chinese exchanges - their financial reporting requirements are not that stringent.
Chinese casinos can be very profitable (Macao's Sands Casino was built in 2004 and recouped that amount in less than one year), but differ from the U.S. - Chinese gamblers don't drink, consider fine shopping and dining a waste of time and money, and ignore slots. The focus is on table games.
Hsu sees education as a big business in China. It is estimated that a typical Chinese household with a child spends more on education than housing and health care. There are about 70,000 private school, serving 14 million students (200/). There is also a large market teaching English (especially to pass the TOEFL and GRE). English is now mandatory for high-school graduation. Recently the government mandated that rural schools accept pupils unable to pay tuition and books.
On average, less than 20% of the price a brand-name product commands in the U.S. goes to Chinese manufacturing. Per UBS AG, China earns only 0.35/Barbie doll retailing for $20 in the U.S. Because of these low margins, and the fact that other areas of China and Asia stand ready to take over, Hsu recommends staying away from investing in Chinese manufacturing. (China, however, is working to learn R&D in manufacturing and drug development - so watch out!)
Personal health care spending now averages $55/person/year, and Hsu sees this area as another good opportunity for investment.
Bottom Line: Very interesting and credible.China Fireworks: How to Make Dramatic Wealth from the Fastest-Growing Economy in the World Overview

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