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A Bull in China: Investing Profitably in the World's Greatest Market ReviewFor a book whose the back-cover screams "Indiana Jones of Investing", the author thankfully sets realistic expectations in the introduction chapter and adopts a sane tone (different from the cheerleader hysteria or end of the world tone adopted by most investing books). Rogers starts off by saying that "this is not a catalog of hot tips or even recommendations", but a "survey of happenings" in China. The reader is well served with that approach. He also re-iterates his oft stated opinion - short the dollar, long commodities, and learn Chinese!
In the first chapter, Rogers takes the reader through the different shares classes in China and some history on the evolution of the stock exchanges in that country. Chapter 2 provides his assessment of the different risks faced by China. His bias towards investing in China as opposed to India is quite apparent in a rather superficial comparison (readers wanting a more detailed comparison could benefit from a recent book - The Elephant and the Dragon: The Rise of India and China and What It Means for All of Us). It is hard to argue that the first two chapters provide the informed reader anything substantially new, but positioning that discussion with a quasi-travelogue is very entertaining.
Throughout the book, Rogers provides a list of companies that are relevant to the trends/observations in a section (Jims Sino Files!). To me, these lists seemed like an excellent way to understand the landscape of Chinese economy (high level, but still a good picture) and to create a watch list for IPOs! An overwhelming majority of the companies in the list do not trade as ADRs - most in Hong Kong or only in China. Rogers mentions where the stock is traded if at all, and provides the 3 year trends on profits and revenues. (sadly, it doesn't have any information on operating margins). Listing the companies along with his observations on a particular topic, as opposed to burying them in an appendix is a good choice.
Chapter 2 also talks about aero-defense-industrial materials sector companies, with the section on water purification the most interesting. The third chapter focuses on household names ranging from grocers to insurance companies and also highlights the top 5 innovators. (one wonders the lead time for editing these books, because the author still has Alibaba's IPO as a planned one...any reader who has watched CNBC or reading blogs should be aware that this was a big deal a few weeks ago...). The next chapter focuses on the energy sector. Using some startling statistics (most of them are cited, so a reader has to be content with the interpretation Rogers provides) talks about coal, hydro-electricity, wind power and nuclear energy. The list of companies involved in these sectors is an excellent source for China watchers/investors. (while Rogers identifies some companies that derive indirect benefit from these trends, some omissions is intriguing - Fuel Tech (FTEK) for coal industry is one of them). Chapters 5 and 6 talk about transportation and tourism respectively - the latter providing a much better reading than the former. The next chapter on agriculture is perhaps the most unique discussion in the book. Covering a wide range of topics from seeds to fertilizers to animal husbandry to wineries, the chapter paints a very vivid picture of the agriculture sector and identifies the key players.
Rogers seems to be running out of patience when he reaches Chapter 8, where he clubs Health, Education and Housing in a single "service sector" oriented chapter. The discussion highlights some interesting trends overall, but misses the relatively more detailed context provided in previous chapters. Nevertheless, an informative chapter, despite not mentioning any of the recent darlings in the stock market - EJ Holdings (real estate) and WuXi (WX - medical research outsourcer).
Chapter 9, the most important one in the book, provides his prognosis for the different sectors/themes with a view of "possibly plunking your money in them someday"! An excellent read and worth buying the book for this chapter alone.
The reader should also search some of the investment blogs such as Seeking Alpha to read recent interviews of Rogers regarding this book and his opinion on the current investment climate in China. The author cautions that one cannot predict whether a bubble is imminent or not, but suggests to keep monitoring the landscape for potential long term investments. That sanity is welcome!
The Appendix seems to be an after-thought and not particularly useful, and there is no list of citations for the more serious reader. Another book worth keeping in the radar is From Wall Street to the Great Wall: How Investors Can Profit from China's Booming Economy.
The writing style is very conversational and easy-flowing. The part travelogue aspect of the narration sustains the interest level of the reader throughout the discussions.
All in all, for the price of a few lattes, you can get first-hand information on the landscape of Chinese economy in a wide variety of sectors, and an excellent concluding chapter that could serve as a good framework for investing in China. A must read for any serious investor.
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